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Same As It Ever Was

During January, both equity and bond environments served as reminders that economic markets don’t necessarily follow the Gregorian calendar. Much of the momentum experienced in the latter half of 2025 carried right into January without pause. Unfortunately, so too did the interest rate uncertainty and the equity concentration that developed during the last year. Those might have been nicer left in 2025.

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When Everything Worked

2025 shined on diversified investors, with positive absolute returns across many major asset classes- domestic equities, international equities, fixed income, and commodities. Market performance was shaped by a combination of moderated economic growth, a transition in monetary policy, and persistent concentration within equity leadership.

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Mind The Gap

While your neighbors’ Christmas lights may be bright and orderly, November returns in equities and fixed income were a much more disparate collection of indicators. Domestic equities returned +.25% and –1.45% as tracked by the S&P 500 Index and the NASDAQ Index, respectively. The S&P 500 Index is less heavily constituted of the mega-cap tech names that Nasdaq is and, instead, includes greater allocations to some more defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare. In this case, the broader diversification has worked in its favor. International equities moved loosely in tandem with domestics. International developed markets returned +.65% as tracked by MSCI EAFE Index and emerging markets returned -2.38% as tracked by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

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Trick or Treat

November 5, 2025 - While ghosts and ghouls may have lined neighborhood streets the last few weeks, markets were more treat than trick this month. Equities, both in the United States and abroad, closed the month with strong performances. As tracked by the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index, domestic equities returned +1.99% and +4.28% respectively. Dispersion in the returns among the S&P 500 and Nasdaq can be largely attributed to the ongoing ‘mega-cap tech/AI’ story. The Nasdaq is more heavily weighted towards technology, and S&P 500 includes more headwind facing sectors like energy/industrials.

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Stalemates And Interest Rates

October 10 2025 - September brought the first rate cut of 2025, experienced strengthened consumer sentiment, and closed with positive returns in both equities and fixed income. Despite this pleasant reprieve over the last month, uncertainty still prevails in trade policies, currency exchange rates, and an ongoing government shutdown over budget disputes. Amid this mixed environment of rate cuts and political concerns, domestic equities closed +4.35% and +6.55% as tracked by the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices, respectively.

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Markets Engaged

September 8, 2025 - In August, Taylor Swift said yes, and so did small caps. The Russell 2000 Index closed +9.36% followed closely by the S&P 600 at +8.84%. That is the highest single month return for Russell 2000 Index since November 2020. It is more than double the monthly return for the S&P 500 that came in at +3.68% which, in turn, was outpaced by the NASDAQ Composite Index at +3.97%. International equities were close behind domestic equities. Developed markets led emerging markets which closed at +3.88% and +2.87% as tracked by the MSCI ACWI ex USA IMI Index and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index respectively. Debt markets saw little sustained change, yields tightened marginally, and municipal bonds had net inflows.

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Equities Rising

August 5, 2025 - The strong performance in both equities and fixed income during July has offered the market a chance at a full recovery from the tariff-related dip seen earlier in the year. The large cap tech stocks known colloquially as the “Magnificent Seven” have continued to drive equity returns. These gains, and losses, are continuing to lead most of the equity market. The disproportionate sway held by the tech sector has significant effects in each asset class that it touches. Although they are muted in fixed incomes segments, these effects are witnessed across all major indices when earnings surprises, in either direction, take place. While this isn’t a new development, but rather a recent trend, it appears to be developing into a more pronounced ‘control’.

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Heating Up

July 8, 2025 - Cresting the midpoint of the year always seems to come with fireworks, watermelon, and lots of sunshine. While 2025 didn’t start this way, markets have turned just as hot and restless as these perfect summer days. While there has been an upward trend in both equities and fixed income during the month of June, there continues to exist a lingering uncertainty and unresolved risk within the US. Much of this trepidation was reflected in domestic equities during the rocky spring. Despite that volatility, May and June have made way for a healthy recovery for equities. Moreover, the recovery is pushing for a market rotation that would make for opportunities in more than the tech sector alone.

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Spring Surge

While the talk of aggressive trade policies and international pressures has been ongoing, May allowed for a sweet reprieve in equity markets. Equities spent the month continuing to recover from early April lows. The S&P 500 Index and the NASDAQ Index returned up +5.63% and +8.01% respectfully for the month of May. The wider spread between the returns of those two similar indices is generally attributed to the sector drag on the S&P because NASDAQ has a heavier tech weighting. Moreover, NASDAQ has a heavier consumer discretionary weighting and smaller weightings in consumer staples and financials relative to the S&P 500. That difference in sector weightings has given way to more resilience to trade tensions and tariff policies.

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April Fools

May 7, 2025 - April market activity was no joke. In early April, following President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement the S&P 500 saw two subsequent single day drawdowns exceeding all of those since 2011. Since then, there have been attempts at market rebounds but it’s too soon to say whether the market will move out of these losses or continue its downward trend. Volatility has calmed moderately as talk from the White House indicated that specific tariffs, with regard to both nations as a whole as well as particular classes of goods, could be paused but this early selloff in the month resulted in equities returning -1.05% and +0.01% for the month as tracked by the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ indexes.

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Full Court Press

April 8, 2025 - March was filled with many bracket busting moments. The sell-off in equity markets that began mid-February continued unabated. The ‘mag seven’ (i.e. a basket of highly valued technology-based stocks whose valuation generally categorizes them as mega-caps) returned -10.17% as tracked by the Bloomberg Magnificent Seven Total Return Index. Unfortunately, their tournament dreams faded quickly after an early knockout. Going into the month, new tariffs for Mexico and Canada as well as increased tariffs on goods from China had already been signed and scheduled to go into effect later this year.

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Shuffling Into Spring

February 5, 2025 - Historically, bond markets have been used as a productive hedge to equities as the two tend to perform inversely. That is, as bond yields rise money tends to flow out of equities and vice-versa. Over the course of the last fifteen years, however, empirical evidence has suggested that bonds may be an inappropriate hedge to equities because the two have begun to have a more direct relationship. While this may indeed have been the reality, market returns throughout the last month propose that the traditional, indirect relationship that bonds had with equities prior to the Great Financial Crisis has its chance at a comeback.

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Volatility Welcomes 2025

And, just like that, the first month of the first quarter of the last year of the first quarter of the twenty-first century has already come and gone. And it was far from polished where markets were concerned. On more than one occasion January brought single day drawdowns greater than 2% for the S&P 500 Index. Despite this erraticism, most major indexes exited the month with positive returns. Equities returned +3.00% and +1.82% as tracked by the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index respectively.

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Year-End Reflections: Navigating the Peaks and Valleys of 2024

January 13, 2025 - December delivered a disappointing finish to what was otherwise a rewarding 2024 for diversified investors. Despite a fair amount of tumult and trepidation throughout the year, investors were largely rewarded for staying the course. For the full year, equity markets were predominantly positive with certain market segments, like U.S. Large Cap Technology stocks, seeing quite strong returns. Bond markets were more reserved in their full year returns, weathering a fair amount of volatility in response to changes in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

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Bump And Caution

December 10, 2024 - November was an unusually flat month for both bonds and domestic large caps. The latter, in particular, enjoyed a post-election bump then remained elevated for the remainder of the month. Even so, they did decline slightly on November 15 which may have been in response to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s Economic Outlook remarks from the previous evening. For the month, though, the S&P 500 returned 5.4% and the NASDAQ posted +5.45%. Bond markets, tracked by the Bloomberg US Aggregate Total Return Value Unhedged Index, stayed strong despite an early-month decision by the Fed to cut interest rates and closed the month up 1.51%.

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All Trick, No Treat

November 8, 2024 - As we pack away the skeletons and cobwebs until next year, we reflect back on what was a frightful month of October in financial markets. Investors were treated to another tumultuous month of stock market performance and a mixed bag of economic data. In a spate of ominous cooperation equites and bonds were broadly down for the month, leaving investors little room to hide. Despite establishing a new all-time high mid-month, the S&P 500 retreated through month end to finish -0.91% for October. Valuations and concentration have been ongoing topics of concern, especially within the S&P 500 index.

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Reelin' & Rockin’: A Look Back at 3Q24

October 9, 2024 - This third quarter of 2024 brought several memorable events. Unemployment rates have crept slowly upwards and recent polls suggest that trend is expected to continue. Even so, according to a recent report by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, real GDP has risen by 4.6% for January through June. Hurricane Helene made landfall in central Florida as a category 4 hurricane, and devastated regions across the southeast. Airlines are still recovering from an update to widely adopted software that interrupted their systems in mid-July.

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Summer Spring

September 5, 2024 - While the month may have started off in a stumble , August made a quick recovery. Markets tumbled on the first of the month, and then saw one of the worst single day drops in history on the very next day. However, both equity and bond markets quickly recovered, and August performance was able to mirror that of previous months. Equity markets returned 3.84% and 3.11% for the month as tracked by the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, respectively.

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Bulls On Parade

August 6, 2024 -Much like its namesake holiday, this July was a month full of fireworks in financial markets. While global equities posted relatively tepid headline returns, a burst of eye-catching spectacles were seen for those willing to look a little harder. Bond markets experienced their own gyrations over the month with the Treasury yield curve falling markedly over July in growing anticipation of coming rate cuts. Overall, July was another solid month for markets in what has been a strong year for investors’ portfolios.

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Hold Steady

July 16, 2024 - Increasingly hot market sentiment led to rising domestic equities markets in June with major indices reaching 2024 highs. The three most watched indexes in the US all saw gains for June with the S&P 500 Index rising 3.35% with 2024 year-to-date total gains of 15.13% through month end. The NASDAQ Composite Index finished +5.37% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.5% for the month. The NASDAQ and DOW are up +20.09% and +4.72% year to date, respectively.

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Markets In Bloom

June 10, 2024 - The April showers did, in fact, bring May flowers. Markets hit record highs on the back of the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. On Friday, May 17, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) reached a new all-time high and closed above 40,000. After hitting this mark, there was light volatility as markets lost steam for a few days, but shortly thereafter things picked back up once again. Equity markets returned 5.16% and 7.24% for the month as tracked by the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Index, respectively.

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Will April Showers Bring May Flowers? (Here's Hoping)

May 6, 2024 - Markets experienced April showers this month with most all major domestic indices falling from their 2024 Q1 highs. The S&P 500 Index saw a pullback of -4.16% from its first quarter high, ending April down -3.97. The NASDAQ Composite finished -4.41% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average -5%.

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We Feel Good

April 15, 2024 - Here in our home state of Georgia the flowers are blooming, pollen is blanketing the landscape, and winter coats are being traded in for short sleeves "It’s springtime and we have just wrapped up a beloved sporting event here in our corner of the world – the Masters golf tournament." Although we’ve not even reached “the turn” for 2024 yet, we thought it appropriate to evaluate the “scorecard” as it currently stands at the end of the first quarter.

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Between Scylla and Charybdis

March 5, 2024 - In February, overall returns were a mixed bag with equities performing well but debt markets returning negative for the month. The S&P 500 returned up 4.03% and NASDAQ was up 4.06%. Although performance is certainly not indicative of future results, we find it relevant to note that in closing out the third full week of the month, both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hit all-time highs.

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January Hawks & Doves

February 13, 2024 - January markets reacted positively to the end of 2023’s strong jobs report that helped keep unemployment at 3.7%. U.S. markets finished higher for the month of January over December.

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2023 In the Rearview

January 11, 2024 - December closed the book on a tumultuous year in financial markets. 2023 will be remembered as a year in which we saw no shortage of challenges both global and domestic.

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Cold November

December 11, 2023 - To nearly no one’s surprise, and as we mentioned in our October commentary, the Fed held rates steady in its November 1st decision. This decision left markets relatively uninfluenced. Debt and equities were both on the rise from the start of the month. This upward trend continued into the second half of the month, when investors reacted positively to the inflation report for October.

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October Fall

November 2, 2023-October 2023 saw promising run-ups in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices for the first half of the month, but both major indexes finished down by month end. The S&P 500 reached its zenith on October 17 at $4,393, or 2.58%, from the beginning of month open before finishing down -2.07% for the month.

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September Slide

October 9, 2023 September began with many indices trending downward, and this continued into the end of the month. On the 20th, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released their decision to hold interest rates rather than hike them. This was its second decision to hold rates since January 2022, the last decision to do so being in June. Following this announcement, there was further downturn in the market but it’s difficult to attribute this market deterioration solely to this decision by the Fed.

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Hot July

August 9, 2023 This month marks the start of the third quarter, another interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, and a continued recession watch. Despite this rate increase, the S&P 500 ended the month + 3.09% and the NASDAQ rose 3.85%. Fixed Income sectors, as tracked by the Bloomberg US Agg Total Return Value Unhedged USD, while not quite as strong, did continue the positive trend and squeaked out + .14%.

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Scenes From The Chop House

June 8, 2023 - As we concluded a tense month in global financial markets, all eyes turned toward Washington where the ongoing debt ceiling crisis appeared to be nearing a resolution. Negotiations dominated headlines throughout April and most of May until fears swelled to a crescendo late in the month when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen delivered a letter to Congressional leadership announcing a June 5th deadline after which the Treasury would be “unable to meet all of the government’s commitments.”

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April Showers

May 5, 2023-The first few weeks of April were slow as equities began the month with less volatility than we were seeing throughout March. However, after the first week, volatility returned. Despite this see-sawing, US markets stayed in the black.

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March Madness

April 13, 2023-Over the past few months, equity markets have remained volatile, and a few major economic events have kept them that way. Events including the fall of Silicon Valley Bank, rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, inertial inflation, and steep job cuts.

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Equities and Bonds Finish Strong in July as Fed Shifts on Inflation Fight

Despite subdued price action for the first two weeks of July, the month finished on a strong note following the Federal Reserve’s policy remarks and better than feared corporate earnings.

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Looking Ahead and Holding On

June was another roller-coaster month to end the first half of a roller coaster year. The S&P 500 Index had a total return of -8.26% for the month contributing to its current slide of -17.52% for the year.

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A Mixed Month for Markets; An Uncertain Path Forward

All things considered, May was a mixed month for stocks. Markets remained relatively flat while shouldering elevated volatility and year-to-date lows.

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A Rough Month For Equities

April was a rough month for equities. The S&P Total Return Index was down -8.72%, the Russell 2000 Total return Index was down -9.91%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 13.24%.

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2021 In Review

Wow, another year is in the books. As we reflect on 2021 it’s difficult not to think of the past year as 2020’s sidekick.

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Hawkish Fed, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine Fuel Market Volatility

Entering 2022, persistently high inflation levels and the U.S. central bank’s policy direction posed one of the greatest risks to near and intermediate-term equity markets.

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The Shape Of Things To Come?

The first month of 2022 is now in the books, and to call it an inauspicious beginning to the year might be an understatement. There seem to be some definite headwinds for the United States, and the economy, which the market is reflecting.

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